In March, inflation remained at the upper end of the target range
Amidst higher food prices, economists anticipate that inflation rose for the second consecutive month in March, with some predicting it may surpass the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) target range of two to four percent.
HSBC Global Research ASEAN economist Aris Dacanay projects inflation to have reached 3.8 percent in March, attributing this increase mainly to rising food prices, particularly rice, which has been impacted by the ongoing risks of El Niño and trade restrictions in India, a major rice exporter.
ING Bank’s senior economist Nicholas Mapa also forecasts inflation to settle at 3.8 percent, citing rice inflation alongside higher costs for utilities and transportation as key drivers.
Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan predicts headline inflation could reach 3.9 percent in March, with weather-related crop damage and increases in electricity and fuel prices contributing to the rise.
Security Bank’s chief economist Robert Dan Roces suggests inflation may have settled at four percent, with potential disruptions in global supply chains adding to inflationary pressures.
UnionBank’s chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion believes inflation may have exceeded four percent, settling at 4.1 percent in March, with rice prices and drought effects on other crops contributing significantly.
Alvin Arogo, economist at the Philippine National Bank, also anticipates March inflation at 4.1 percent, suggesting that this strengthens the case for the Monetary Board to maintain current borrowing costs during its April meeting.
Looking ahead, economists suggest that while rate cuts may not be on the table due to inflation risks, the likelihood of further rate hikes remains low, given the significant easing of inflation from its peak in January 2023.
Overall, economists expect inflation to gradually return to the BSP’s target range by the early third quarter, with the full-year average projected to be around 3.6 percent in 2024.
Business News: In March, inflation remained at the upper end of the target range
